Apparently, God has told Pat Robertson who the next President will be, but Pat isn’t talking.

Predicting the outcome of elections, especially U.S. Presidential elections, is big business. Everyone gets in on it. And if you have an opinion that you can spout in 3-second soundbites, 24-hour news channels will put you in a little box next to another guy in a similar box who disagrees with you and will let you duke it out.

"Oh, can u tell me who the next Pres, is gonna b?! 'Cuz that would b some useful information!"

But, what if there was a way to track people’s opinions and more accurately predict their behaviors when voting? Well, that’s the Holy Grail, isn’t it? That’s what polling is all about. But, that only ever gets us so far, especially in the U.S. where the ever-present and ever-in-the-majority “undecided” voter gets all the effort and attention from every candidate.

Enter Facebook. And Twitter. And YouTube.

Two websites, Sociagility and AllFacebook, have analyzed metrics from those three sites in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus. According to their analyses, only Facebook metrics would have predicted the right outcome.

AllFacebook’s approach, in particular, tallied Facebook “likes” and “talking about” information for each candidate, the idea being that, the ratios of how much candidates were being discussed and “liked” were an indicator of their position in the eventual caucus outcome. Let’s collapse their chart a bit and look at Facebook, the only social media outlet in their study that came close to predicting the outcome correctly.

It is an interesting after-the-fact analysis of a single event. But the data they have tallied leads to some other questions when compared to the final outcome.

For example, one huge hole in the election results in terms of Facebook activity is Rick Santorum. He finished in a statistical tie with front-runner Mitt Romney. But his Facebook activity was outrageously down compared to other candidates. In fact, the only candidate trailing Santorum in Facebook mentions and likes was Huntsman.

The final caucus tally put the candidates in this order:

1) Romney
2) Santorum
3) Paul
4) Gingrich
5) Perry
6) Bachmann
7) Huntsman

If one had looked at Facebook metrics as a predictor, the race would have been forecast as:

1) Romney
2) Paul
3) Bachmann
4) Gingrich
5) Perry
6) Santorum
7) Huntsman

Romney’s lead, or at least a top-three finish, was predicted widely. Ron Paul finishing in the top three was also commonly expected. It is generally acknowledged that Huntsman would be dead last no matter what (for now). So, that left huge questions about the other four candidates. All we really had to go on was the current direction of their inertia in media and popular culture.

And that is what I think we get out of looking at the Facebook data. It is a peek at who is talking, but not about what they are saying. And, for Facebook particularly, we need to look at the quality and content of what is being said.

Bachmann was being talked about a lot. But, there are tons of crazy-eyed Bachmann photos being traded around. She made outrageous statements and gaffes almost daily. She was a walking joke. And Facebook trades jokes.

What about Santorum and his conspicuous absence from Facebook activity? Well, what do you get when you Google “Santorum”? And who wants that kind of NSFW material being passed around with kids all over Facebook? Who wants to explain anal froth? Let’s just not talk about it, shall we?

Huntsman doesn’t have much in the way of controversy or gaffes. He hasn’t been much of a topic of conversation since he admitted that he actually listens to scientists.

Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann all have two things in common: 1) they all have said things that are worth poking fun at, and 2) they were all three on their way down.

What this all adds up to is that “talking about” and even “likes” do not add up to favorability. They simply mean activity. Herman Cain is not even in this race anymore. He’s gone away quietly. But if he showed up on Maury tomorrow for a paternity test, he’d be charting on Facebook again. How would that skew the election analysis? Perhaps analysis of this type should not be done by some campaign consultant, but by your average Redditor.

In the end, elections are complex things. People build careers around analyzing and advising on the topic, just like jury selection specialists. There are social factors, religious factors, racial factors, economic factors, etc. Candidates are advised on which tie to wear, how to smile, what to eat. It extends into legislation and activities that will hopefully affect future election results through re-districting, ballot initiatives, voter fairness/suppression.

Facebook and that ilk tells us what we talk about. And, usually, it just ends up being cats. Now, if Jon Huntsman started doing funny stuff with cats in public before the New Hampshire Primary…

We imagine the various political bloggers and webmasters must be in ecstasy today, now that the state of Iowa has its primary underway. To complement those fevered bloggers, we took a look at some of the resources available at the major search sites about the primary.

At Ask.com, a search for the Iowa primary brings up a Smart Answer block atop the search results. They link to the state of Iowa’s list of sites about the primary; the left sidebar of the Ask results features options for narrowing the search.

Google occupies the other end of the spectrum. They have been a fixture thanks to their presence in the YouTube debates held in 2007. Tonight, a Google Maps mashup will show live results of today’s voting in Iowa.

Yahoo goes farther with its election coverage than Google and its News section for the election. At Yahoo, features like their Election ’08 Political Dashboard offer a unique look at the various campaigns.

AOL Elections ’08, like many other AOL services, mimics the style and look of Yahoo. AOL’s site isn’t as gee-whizzy as Yahoo’s, as they have more of a focus on stories and headlines about the election. They will track primary results, and show them on the main elections page.

At Microsoft, their MSN Election page covers what they have to offer voters. MSNBC News figures prominently, with a lead story on how various outcomes would affect eleven of the candidates (Ron Paul didn’t merit a mention in MSNBC political director Chuck Todd’s piece, though.)

MSN’s continued connection with Slate.com, once a Microsoft property, brings in several stories from that publication. Latino MSN Elecciones 2008 serves the Spanish-language community seeking online election information.

Yes, some industries are less effective and they have fallen in importance, but SEO press releases can still be a very cost-effective strategy to getting search engine rankings.

I’ve long recommended PRLeap (and Clickpress) as an SEO press release distribution option for small businesses. It’s ideal for small budgets or for times you don’t need or want a lot of extra features. You just want a link.

If you hope to capture both traditional and online media, along with more reporting and multimedia features, I’ve gone with PRWeb’s service. Just make sure it’s well-written because if the editorial score isn’t a 4 or 5 most journalists won’t see your release. To filter out the noise you can exclude lower quality releases. They also offer more social media features.

I’ve never used PR Leap’s free service because it didn’t allow anchored text in the press release, but no matter now. Starting January 1, 2008, PR Leap won’t offer a free option.

PRLeap is now adding social media features as a primary focus. As of yesterday, their top offering will be $149 and the most first tier is $49. The $149 release allows you to attach up to five multimedia features – such as video, a PDF file, your logo, or a podcast. Up until now they’ve only allowed text. Replacing the free version is now their basic release with no images or frills. However, they submit your news to Ask.com News and Google News. They don’t mention anchored text but I assume that now comes standard. Social bookmarking links to Digg, Delicious, Reddit, and Stumble are at the end of each release, but not a way to leave comments.

I became a convert to SEO press releases over a year ago. I asked my boss if I could experiment with optimized press releases. I simply took the press release written by our PR firm and SEOed it. The release became one of the top 5 sites sending traffic to our web site for several months. Then another one I sent out got a #5 ranking for a niche keyword just two days after it was released.

Some say SEO press releases have fallen in importance, however I’ve still seen results, especially when combined with social networking and blogging (example: Avant Link – a niche affiliate network). I’d be curious if anyone reading this has feedback on how it’s working for them.

Comments

Tag:

On the Digg the Candidates election site, many of the candidates have agreed to participate on the site. Hillary Clinton is currently a notable exception, especially considering her visits to Silicon Valley, including a trip to Google.

Digg’s Daniel Burka discussed the new page at Digg the Blog:

We

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/digg-unearths-presidential-candidate-tracking-2007-11/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/does-the-myspace-vote-matter-2007-04 http://www.webpronews.com/does-the-myspace-vote-matter-2007-04#comments Tue, 10 Apr 2007 22:09:10 +0000 Doug Caverly http://www.webpronews.com/?p=36887 One week ago, MySpace announced plans to hold its own little Presidential primary, and we all “oohed” and “aahed” (or at least thoughtfully “hmmed”) on cue - it sounds like an interesting idea, right?  But new data implies that MySpace’s elections won’t in any way predict the real deal.
]]> One week ago, MySpace announced plans to hold its own little Presidential primary, and we all “oohed” and “aahed” (or at least thoughtfully “hmmed”) on cue – it sounds like an interesting idea, right?  But new data implies that MySpace’s elections won’t in any way predict the real deal.

Does The MySpace Vote Matter?

Heather Hopkins, Hitwise’s vice president of research in the UK, gathered the data, and, to be perfectly clear, the data is from the UK – not America.  Yet many of Hopkins’s findings should hold true.

Her main conclusion: “It seems that the groups most highly represented on MySpace are also those that are most likely not to vote,” she wrote.

Hopkins then supplied a colorful (and mildly complicated) chart to illustrate the point.  Out of eleven groups, only three are considered both “Voters & MySpacers.”  The rest either hang out at MySpace and don’t vote or fulfill their civic duties and stay clear of the social networking site.

Still, these findings come with some big disclaimers.  First, “[k]eep in mind this data is at the household level – not the voter level.”  Also, “[t]his doesn’t mean that politicians should ignore social networks.  Social networks account for 6% of upstream visits to politics websites last week and Blogs a further 6%.  Together they are nearing the traffic levels referred by News and Media websites (14%).”

The candidates’ increased presence on MySpace is probably a good idea, then, and it’ll be interesting to see how the results of the real Presidential primary stack up next to the site’s version.  But, judging from Hopkins’s findings, we shouldn’t expect an exact match.

 

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/does-the-myspace-vote-matter-2007-04/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/myspace-to-hold-presidential-primary-2007-04 http://www.webpronews.com/myspace-to-hold-presidential-primary-2007-04#comments Tue, 03 Apr 2007 14:59:18 +0000 Mike Sachoff http://www.webpronews.com/?p=36707 MySpace is becoming more involved in the political process and today announced plans to hold their own Presidential primary. The social networking giant will hold virtual elections on January 1 and 2, 2008.

]]> MySpace is becoming more involved in the political process and today announced plans to hold their own Presidential primary. The social networking giant will hold virtual elections on January 1 and 2, 2008.

MySpace To Hold Presidential Primary

The MySpace elections will take place before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries and will be open to all U.S. members of the site.

"The MySpace community will give America its first Presidential primary winner in 2008," said Chris DeWolfe, CEO of MySpace.

"Iowa and New Hampshire may be selecting delegates, but the MySpace vote will be the first test of where candidates stand in the election year," added Tom Anderson, President of MySpace.

MySpace will invite every user in their community to participate in voting for the Presidential candidate of their choice the first two days of January.

According to comScore Media Metrics MySpace has 65 million American visitors every month and 85 percent of them are of voting age. In addition Nielsen//NetRatings indicates that MySpace users 18 and older have a high level of efficacy and are three times more likely to interact online with a public official or candidate.

They also found that MySpace users are 42 percent more likely to watch online video relating to politics, 35 percent more likely to research politics online and 44 percent more likely to listen to online audio having to do with politics.

If MySpace has a high level of participation in their virtual primary and their numbers indicate they should, will their Presidential primary become a credible predicator as to the outcome of the election?

They are in a unique position to experiment and with a dozen Presidential candidates signed on to MySpace politicians clearly believe that social networking and politics do mix.

"MySpace is establishing itself as a powerful player in the political engagement arena by giving power to its users — giving them the tools to register, vote and actively participate in their democracy," said Cherie Simon, President of Declare Yourself.

"When MySpace’s massive reach is fueled by its strong commitment to empower its users, it will drive millions of young people to actively engage in their democracy by registering to vote."

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/myspace-to-hold-presidential-primary-2007-04/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/canspam-five-months-later-2004-05 http://www.webpronews.com/canspam-five-months-later-2004-05#comments Fri, 21 May 2004 15:23:34 +0000 Kevin Bidwell http://www.webpronews.com/?p=10127 Got spam? Me, too. Five months after CAN-SPAM became the law of the land, here are some of the changes in the landscape.

First, the bad news:

Spam continues to rise.

According to Brightmail, spam comprised 62% of all email in February, up from 48% at this time last year and up 4% from December-before CAN-SPAM went into effect.

One survey also indicated that internet users are becoming more wary of shopping with online vendors, fearing they will receive more spam as a result.

Not a good sign for those of use who wish to do business online.

But there is some good news:

The majority of spam-almost 80%–is being effectively filtered out so the amount of spam ending up in our inboxes is actually decreasing.

Over 90% of spam is being produced by a small number of people (around 200), most of whom are quickly coming under the scrutiny of the US government (contrary to popular belief, 163 of them operate their businesses from the US.)

Last month the FTC filed extensive charges against four suspected spammers and many more are likely to come shortly.

But the real question for those of us who depend on email to conduct profitable business is this: How can I make my business more profitable in the current business environment?

Here are my suggestions:

1. Continue to use email as a primary marketing tool.

For the foreseeable future, email will continue to be one of the most cost-effective ways for you to produce sales and profits. Those who have abandoned email in favor of desktop applications are jumping the gun.

To make sure you are complying with the provisions of the CAN-SPAM act yourself, I have put together a free report here:

http://www.All-In-One-Business.com/can-spam

2. Expand your marketing options.

Email (or its variant) will continue to be a marketing option for legitimate marketers. But expect email to become more difficult, expensive and/or restrictive in the years to come.

Now is the time to begin expanding your marketing to offline methods: print media, alternate electronic media, direct mail. These more traditional marketing methods may “cost” a little more on the front end, but they will allow you to produce a much higher volume of sales than simply using email alone.

3. Don’t fall prey to fear.

With every change there are the “chicken littles” who will cry “this is the end of the world as we know it.” Pay attention to changes, but don’t fear them. Anyone who builds a business over time will see a myriad of changes. Those who give way to fear will make poor decisions that will damage their business.

Is CAN-SPAM a good or bad thing? Tough to say. But you can still run a highly profitable business in spite of the changes.

Kevin Bidwell is owner of

http://www.All-In-One-Business.com/cg-bin/at.cgi?a=274293

Kevin just finished a complete report on building a passive
income. Grab your copy here:

http://www.All-In-One-Business.com/cg-bin/at.cgi?a=274293&e=/pi

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/canspam-five-months-later-2004-05/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/two-primary-steps-to-precipitation-manifesting-2003-10 http://www.webpronews.com/two-primary-steps-to-precipitation-manifesting-2003-10#comments Tue, 28 Oct 2003 17:10:27 +0000 Susan James http://www.webpronews.com/?p=7913 We want what we want. We want it in our businesses, our relationships, our lifestyles. Are there any shortcuts and free lunches?

Conventional and Traditional Theorist would tell us *no*.

Ah, but there are shortcuts and free lunches. Well, inquiring minds naturally want to know where they are.

These inquiring minds are then divided down the middle by those who will then with thrist in their veins and hearts, devour all the knowledge they can to these shortcuts. But this is where they stop.

The other inquiring minds see this level of knowledge and it is a higher level of knowing, as an exciting blueprint to building exactly what they want. They not only devour the *how-to’s*, they actually Apply the how-to’s.

Higher knowledge is not for the spiritual chickens of the world. Nor is it for the those who see themselves as victims. No, Higher Knowledge is for the movers and shakers of the world. It’s also for those who are not movers or shakers, yet, but know they have it in them. They have a calling that they hear. It calls them Great.

Higher knowledge contains the Two Steps to Precipitation, to actually having the shortcuts show up to us having what we want.

We have a choice. We can chase our dreams and never catch them. Or we can apply the understanding that then allows them to flow to us.

If we want our dreams met and our desires manifested, more sooner than later, then we need to teach ourselves and apply Two Degrees of Physics to our intentions.

Why two? Because it is as we become blended human beings, that we then have the power of laser beams to manifest all those things we keep saying that we want for our lives.

The first is discovering that we can have our stuff without first having to be knocked off the ladder of success. As we apply these User Friendly Physics methods, the shortcuts show up.

Then as we master that particular level of higher knowledge, we then have the Second type of Physics. Immaculate Physics.

What is Immaculate Physics? It’s creating with atomic light energy. Most of us have seen pictures of Jesus or other spiritual figures. Most of them are depicted with a light around their heads or their bodies seem to have a light glow around them.

With studying and applying the Immaculate Physics we teach ourselves to actually see this light *live* and we can move it. As we see it with our own eyes, on our inner and outer planes we then can manifest with it.

These two levels of applied shortcuts will bring us what we want with momentum.

This is about our Potential Path. We all have one. I prefer mine to be met, sooner than later. I’ll take the shortcuts, thanks. Less bruises to my heart and mind that way!

Click here to sign up for FREE B2B newsletters from iEntry!

Author/Consultant Susan James writes of User Friendly
Physics and The Immaculate Physics Applications to our
lives. Covering Millionaires to Weight Loss, Susan writes
from personal application of Maverick Momentum methods.
For more information on award winning books and courses
visit: http://www.susanjames.org, http://www.immaculatephysics.com

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/two-primary-steps-to-precipitation-manifesting-2003-10/feed 0