According to the folk tale, six more weeks of winter are predicted by Phil if he sees his shadow. If not, an early spring is “just around the corner.”

The tradition of Punxsutawney’s Groundhog Day dates back to 1887. Since February 2 falls on a weekend this year, record crowds are expected to visit Gobbler’s Knob.

In addition to live-streaming the event, the Pennsylvania Tourism Office has again teamed up with Foursquare to offer a special Groundhog Day badge. The first 500 Foursquare users to check in from Gobbler’s Knob on February 2 will receive a Groundhog Day-branded Slinky toy. The Slinky was declared the official toy of Pennsylvania in 2001.

Last year, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter, as is usually the case. Still, there is always hope that the groundhog will predict an early spring, and that the prediction will happen to be correct.

For those who prefer to sleep in on their Saturdays, the movie Groundhog Day is currently streaming via Netflix Watch Instantly. It is, in every way, more entertaining than one of the real predictions. As proof, last year’s festivities (which consist largely of men in top hats making a spectacle of a terrified rodent) can be seen below.

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The findings are reported over at eMarketer from a study done by the Kelsey Group and BIA Advisory Services. By the year 2013 the local ad market will shrink. The compound annual growth rate from 2008 – 1013 is projected to be -1.4% with the biggest year to year decline occurring this year. Here’s the picture.

I am not a very big fan of these crystal ball prognostications. We are barely able to determine what will happen 6 months from now let alone 4 plus years from now. The pattern that is predicted however makes sense. The decline will occur in traditional media. There is no surprise here. We can see how poorly things are going for local advertising by simply looking at the state of the newspaper industry. That combined with doubt as to the future of hard Yellow Page advertising explains the drop in that area. It’s predicting the numbers that always makes everyone queasy.

Now, the upside of this is the fact that online local advertising is anticipated to grow significantly. It is predicted by this study to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 18%. Right now online advertising is about 12% of the overall local spending and that could go as high as 22% by 2013. Impressive numbers for sure if you are in the online space and if you chose to buy the research.

I think it’s less about being right about the magnitude of the change but rather about the change itself. The real question and thinking should be around why this is happening. So why is it? It’s becoming a bit of a broken record but online is trackable and measurable in ways that traditional marketing isn’t. Based on that it just makes better sense for businesses to use marketing dollars where they can be most effective with a greater return on investment.

So as an Internet marketer make sure you look past the headlines. This is the good side of the marketing fence to be on for the foreseeable future because the grass is getting greener right where we are.

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I’ve pulled together a list of the best predictions I’ve uncovered so far and detailed them below. (if I’ve missed any – share them via our comments, and I’ll add them in).

Of course we had to get involved in the future gazing fun, and have thrown our predictions in the mix. So first up, here’s where Warren Duff, ineedhits CEO, thinks 2009 will take us:

1. Google will cull non-revenue generating services in an effort to exceed analyst expectations. The share price will not recover to its $600USD high.
2. Google will also face a massive legal challenge in 2009 from a non US country regarding its business practices.
3. The Web 2.0 bubble will burst with many companies entering the "dead pool". The only companies which will survive will be those who have a sustainable business model.
4. Twitter will be bought by a major internet player and whilst will remain free to use for basic version, a premium service offering will emerge. Will continue to be plagued by reliability issues whilst seriously challenging mainstream media and blogs in breaking news.
5. Yahoo! value will drop considerably, forcing even further reduction in forces worldwide. Their search market share will continue to decline at the benefit of Google and Microsoft. Microsoft will over take Yahoo! in terms of search share within the US, forcing Yahoo! to reconsider its search options.
6. Search spending growth will slow considerably in the first half of the year but still grow (single digits). Growth will accelerate to double digits by end of 2009.
7. 2009 will be known as the year that SaaS becomes mainstream, with fortune 500 companies adopting it to reduce costs. Amazon will loose its place as the number one provider of cloud services to start ups, with major IT vendors all offering competiting products but with a far superior development interface i.e. merging of cloud services into traditional desktop development tools.

And now for the prediction lists. There’s quite a few, so grab yourself a glass of eggnog (or something stronger), sit back and enjoy.

Search Marketing Predictions – 2009

• Search Engine Watch: What Will 2009 Bring Us?
• Find Resolution: 2009 Predictions for Search Marketing
• Search Insider: Search Trends To Watch In 2009
• Search Marketing Now: 2009 Predictions

Social Media Predictions – 2009

• ReadWriteWeb: 2009 Internet Marketing Predictions
• Peter Kim: Social Media Predictions 2009
• FastCompany: 8 Experts Predict How Web 2.0 Will Evolve In 2009
• Junta 42: 42+ Social Media and Content Marketing Predictions for 2009
• Shawn Farner: 5 ballsy social media predictions for 2009
• Social Media Explorer: Social Media Predictions For 2009

Digital & Online Marketing Predictions – 2009

• SD Interactive: Online Marketing Predictions for 2009
• eMarketer: eMarketer’s Predictions for 2009
• Website Magazine: 2009 Web Predictions
• Clickz: Digital Marketing Opportunities in 2009
• Blind Five Year Old: 2009 Internet and Technology Predictions
• Feed Growth: The Top 100 Digital Marketing Ideas for 2009

Mobile Marketing Predictions – 2009

• Gomo news: Mobile Predictions 2009
• web analytics world: Predictions for Mobile in 2009

General marketing and Media Predictions – 2009

• FolioMag: 117 Magazine and Media Predictions for 2009
• Market Evolution: Our predictions for newspapers in 2009 and beyond
• iMedia: 2009 Predictions: Your Survival Guide
• Marcom Professional: 2009 PR industry predictions: clients are king
• Online Spin: My Five (Early) Predictions for 2009

Now where do

YOU

think 2009 will take us.

• Will Google continue to control the search engine space in the way it has over the last few years?
• Will the world of SEO tumble at the hands of universal and personalized search?
• Will the cloud and crowd live up to the early buzz?

Gaze into your crystal ball and share your thoughts for 2009.

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Gates famously suggested in 2004 that spam would cease to be a problem in two years. He underestimated the profit potential and the persistent gullibility of computer users when it comes to spam.

Computer security firm Symantec released its State of Spam Report, detailing their observations about spam in November 2007. They painted a bleak picture.

72 percent of all email consisted of spam in November, in Symantec’s analysis. The resurgence goes beyond what Symantec expected to see, as spammers added several new tactics to their junk arsenal.

MP3 files and videos became part of the spamming world this year, as spammers moved beyond text and images. A scarier approach, exploiting Google advanced search, allowed spammers to present a legitimate link to Google, which in turn brought up the spammer’s site as the sole search result.

The broader problem of spam comes with the lack of trust people will have for legitimate email, especially that from marketers. Those firms who do email marketing as part of their business tend to get tarred with the spam brush, no matter how undeserved it may be.

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The message to developers from facebook – The key to opportunity is openness. Makes sense and truly, words of wisdom. However, get this… As the session came near the end Moskovitz offered up some advice to those looking to build on or extend facebook. Faster has met smaller; we have better battery power, access to carrier data networks, WiFi, hardware convergence… this is indeed your opportunity to be disruptive.

It’s was then interesting to note that Moskovitz then dropped a line that in February 08 Apple will release their SDK opening up development on their mobile platform – no doubt we’ll see facebook mobile on Win Mobile 6 devices just like we now see on Blackberry devices (FYI, Blackberry is the device of choice for moskovitz and crew).

But get this… "Also in 2008 Google will do something and its going to be big and it will be open!" Any ideas??? I see that many people are on the rampage again blogging about the gPhone… will it come? My bet… indeed it will.

Google is likely throwing their hat in next year’s wireless spectrum auction, Google search, google maps, and gmail are becoming must-have apps on ALL mobile devices so whay wouldn’t google want to provide the spectrum, the bandwidth, the hardware, the APIs and the advertisements for all mobile device users?

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2011: Net Replaces Papers As Top Ad Medium

Private equity firm Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS) made the bold prediction of what the time leading up to 2011 holds for the advertising world. While we’re going through the process of another Presidential campaign in 2011, online advertising will exceed that of newspapers.

The firm predicted a compound annual growth rate of 6.7 percent for the period of 2006-2011. Their ‘VSS Communications Industry Forecast 2007-2011′ suggested communications spending will top $1 trillion in the US in 2008 for the first time in history.

The company discussed the shift in consumer attention, and where it will go over the next few years:

In addition to shifting their attention to alternative media, consumers are also migrating away from advertising-supported media, such as broadcast TV and newspapers, to consumer-supported platforms, such as cable TV and videogames. Time spent with consumer-supported media grew at a CAGR of 19.8 percent from 2001 to 2006, while time spent with ad-supported media declined 6.3 percent in the period.

Spending on alternative advertising

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/2011-net-replaces-papers-as-top-ad-medium-2007-08/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/truthiness-comes-to-viacom-2007-03 http://www.webpronews.com/truthiness-comes-to-viacom-2007-03#comments Fri, 23 Mar 2007 22:41:27 +0000 WebProNews Staff http://www.webpronews.com/?p=36412 The irony is so thick, it's smothering. Viacom, who sued Google for a billion dollars over copyright infringement, is now being sued by MoveOn.org and the Electronic Frontier Foundation for not understanding the very Fair Use principles the network relies on for its own parodies on "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report."
]]> The irony is so thick, it’s smothering. Viacom, who sued Google for a billion dollars over copyright infringement, is now being sued by MoveOn.org and the Electronic Frontier Foundation for not understanding the very Fair Use principles the network relies on for its own parodies on "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report."

One thing we’ve learned recently is that you just don’t eff with the EFF. Ask Michael Crook. Before this over, Viacom will be bent over a chair, thanking them and asking for another.

A parody developed by MoveOn.org and Brave New Films, giving some light-hearted hell to Stephen Colbert under the slogan "Stop the Falsiness," referring to Colbert’s famous "truthiness" explorations, was forced off YouTube by Viacom.

The media company that owns MTV and Comedy Central, where Colbert’s show airs, claimed copyright infringement and sent the standard DMCA takedown notice among a flurry of others.

Well, MoveOn.org and the EFF have put Viacom on notice that the parody falls under Fair Use, and is not covered under the DMCA.

"Former Senator George Allen learned the hard way that online video is revolutionizing our political discourse and giving the little guy with an audience of millions – followers of the 2008 presidential campaign were reminded of that again in recent days," said Eli Pariser, MoveOn.org’s Civic Action Executive Director.

"With this lawsuit, we are making clear that corporations like Viacom must not be allowed to muzzle independent video creators and censor their free speech."

The two organizations called Viacom’s approach to DMCA enforcement a "shoot first, ask questions later" one, and an assault on the free speech rights of online artists and critics.

"Our clients’ video is an act of free speech and a fair use of ‘Colbert Report’ clips," said EFF Staff Attorney Corynne McSherry.  "Viacom knows this — it’s the same kind of fair use that ‘The Colbert Report’ and ‘The Daily Show’ rely upon every night as they parody other channels’ news coverage."

The suit calls for a declaratory judgment that "Stop the Falsiness" does not infringe on  Viacom’s copyrights, as well as damages and injunctive relief restraining Viacom from bringing claims associated with the video.

This may be a long way to go to prove a point, but we know that after the punishment inflicted on Michael Crook for his own DMCA abuse, the EFF is hell-bent on making sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, online media is the most powerful voice citizens have had in human history. Would you let somebody take it away?

"Online sites like YouTube have revolutionized political expression and can give the little guy an audience of millions for a political point of view," said Pariser. "An entertainment powerhouse like Viacom must not be allowed to muzzle independent video creators and their free speech.

"Copyright owners need to double-check their claims and think about free speech rights before erasing political content from sites like YouTube and misusing the DMCA."

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/truthiness-comes-to-viacom-2007-03/feed 1 http://www.webpronews.com/why-ceos-must-be-involved-in-lead-generation-2006-05 http://www.webpronews.com/why-ceos-must-be-involved-in-lead-generation-2006-05#comments Tue, 09 May 2006 18:48:09 +0000 Brian Carroll http://www.webpronews.com/?p=29111 Sales and The CEO," by Jeff Thull author of Mastering the Complex Sale. ]]> I’d like this article, “Sales and The CEO,” by Jeff Thull author of Mastering the Complex Sale.

In the article, Thull explains how CEOs should to play an active role in developing successful go-to-market strategy. It’s well worth a read.

Like the complex sale, lead generation, with its many facets and interactions, can be properly sparked only by the CEO who believes in it and creates culture to support it.

The lack of synergy between sales and marketing on lead generation is so common as to risk cliche. It goes like this marking feels that sales doesn’t follow-up on marketing generated leads. Sales counters that the “leads” aren’t any good. And so on.

I’ve interviewed hundreds of companies, and less than 10% have a clear, written, and universally accepted definition of what a sales lead means. Even in small companies, I can ask three sales people “what is a sales lead?” and get three different answers.

CEOs will make a huge difference by focusing on collaboration between sales and marketing to gain consensus on the following three things:

1. Ideal Customer Profile (company wide – for each product, service, or solution)

2. Universal Lead Definition that’s applied to all inquires/leads – regardless of source

3. Connecting your marketing/sales process with your customers buying process

As I explain in this post, “Prediction: Lead generation dashboards will likely be a hot topic,” a key goal of many CEOs for their marketing department is to answer this critical question: “What’s our marketing team’s contribution to sales revenue?”

Just by developing an Ideal Customer Profile InTouch saw one client’s average sale, which had been $60,000, increase by more than 30 percent to $80,000, while overall revenue increased by 20 percent. Why? The sales team focused on fewer opportunities – requiring the same effort as before – but the results were of much higher quality.

Another client built consensus on their Universal Lead Definition and ensured the sales department’s total buy-in. With the same tactics and budget as the previous year, return on investment was 120 percent greater than before. The full agreement of sales and marketing on a universal lead definition was credited as being the crucial success factor.

If the CEO isn’t an active supporter of marketing in the company, the proper environment for good, sound lead generation is far removed from reality. The CEO, after all, shapes the vision of the company and sets the tone for its corporate culture.

In the absence of CEO support, I believe marketers are in the unique position of being catalysts for change. Ultimately, it becomes the job of the marketer to lead the charge in pursuit of success of the company’s lead generation program.

The first step is to develop a collaborative culture by focusing on the on the three things I noted above. Then commit to closing-the-loop on each marketing investment which includes all sales leads.

I’ve conducted dozens of Lead Generation Collaboration Workshops to facilitate this process for sales and marketing teams engaged in a complex sale. I explain the basic steps on how you can develop your own universal lead definition here and Chapter 3 of my new book, Lead Generation for the Complex Sale, explains the process in more detail.

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Brian Carroll is the CEO of InTouch Inc. InTouch is a 50-person company focused on delivering effective lead generation solutions for “the complex sale.”

Brian authors the very interesting B2B Lead Generation Blog which focuses on B2B lead generation, sales leads, and marketing for the complex sale.

]]> http://www.webpronews.com/why-ceos-must-be-involved-in-lead-generation-2006-05/feed 0 http://www.webpronews.com/mark-cubans-lessons-for-revolutionaries-2006-03 http://www.webpronews.com/mark-cubans-lessons-for-revolutionaries-2006-03#comments Wed, 29 Mar 2006 17:01:40 +0000 Steve Rubel http://www.webpronews.com/?p=28065 Mark Cuban fan. ]]> Regulars here know that I am a huge Mark Cuban fan.

After I scanned all the chatter about Strumpette and his/her ridiculous and faceless prediction that I will not last in my new job, as an antidote I spent an hour watching this fascinating interview with Mark.

I hardly know Mark. We traded a few emails about blog search and he was kind enough to give me tickets to a Mavs game. Yet, I feel like he’s my unofficial mentor. I have read and re-read his outstanding lessons on success and motivation dozens of times. He is to me like Ann Rynd’s characters are to him – an inspiration. Now that some at least feel that I too am a “public figure,” I look to Professor Cuban for more wisdom. The timing of the interview’s release was perfect.

As I watched the piece I kept thinking “what would Mark do if he were in my situation?” What would he say if he pulled up an IceRocket search to find dozens of bloggers speculating that he was selling the Mavs or getting out of films or whatever the case may be. The answer is he would keep being Mark. Despite his billions, Mark makes himself completely approachable. He answers a good many of the 1000 emails he receives daily from fans and, I bet, foes. This shows he’s true to himself.

Mark Cuban is a maverick. No doubt. He saw the PC and broadband revolutions coming long before we did and, god bless him, he capitalized. More recently he turned around a fledgling basketball team by making them more fan-friendly. Now he’s trying to reinvent entertainment distribution, basketball and even PR in the process.

Mavericks have friends and they have enemies because they’re often successful revolutionaries. They’re pushing what Robert Scoble (another revolutionary) so eloquently calls the membrane. Mark is taking plenty of heat for his revolutionary plan to distribute movies on DVD at the same time they’re in the theaters. But you know what, he listens, occasionally takes on his critics and does his thing.

So that’s what I take away from this whole Smurfette episode. I listen, do my thing and continue to be part of the revolution. After all, that’s what I was hired to do. If I veer from that then I will let everyone down – me, my employer and perhaps even you. That’s not going to happen if I can help it. And I can.

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Steve Rubel is a PR strategist with nearly 16 years of public relations, marketing, journalism and communications experience. He currently serves as a Senior Vice President with Edelman, the largest independent global PR firm.

He authors the Micro Persuasion weblog, which tracks how blogs and participatory journalism are changing the public relations practice.

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