Despite the overall decline, Gartner now expects the PC market to post positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, setting the stage for a solid market recovery in 2010 with a forecast of growth of 10.3 percent.

George Shiffler III

"PC unit growth was stronger than we expected in all markets but Eastern Europe in the first quarter of 2009. In particular, consumer shipments were much stronger than we anticipated," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

"However, professional shipments continued to struggle, and we think much of the growth in consumer units was due to vendors and the channel restocking inventories rather than an upsurge in demand. We expect units to contract roughly 10 percent year over year in both second and third quarter 2009 before they post positive growth in the fourth quarter."

Mini-notebooks continued to cushion the market’s decline in the first quarter of 2009. Units remain on pace to reach 21 million this year and 30 million next year.

Mobile-PC units are forecast total 149 million units in 2009, a 4.1 percent increase over 2008, but spending on mobile PCs is expected to decline 12,8 percent as the mobile -PC average selling prices continue to fall.

"Both mobile-PC and desk-based PC units are being held back by users extending PC lifetimes and delaying replacements in response to the ongoing economic slowdown," Mr. Shiffler said.

"The good news for the industry is that delayed replacements won’t be lost replacements. Our research indicates replacements should grow strongly in 2010 and 2011, helping to power the market’s recovery."

In the third quarter global portable PC shipment growth of 37 percent was the fastest in over a decade. With the support of emerging regions, global desktop volumes continue to increase in low single-digits. The gap between desktops and portables is at an all time high. Portable growth was more than 33 percentage points faster than desktop growth.

"The peak Portable growth seen in the third quarter will be difficult to sustain, but it reflects strong demand across regions and segments that will fuel growth going forward," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

"It will be increasingly important for PC vendors to have a strong Portable offering to stay competitive as the market continues its rapid shift to mobile computing"

International markets are also driving volume. After years of steady growth, the PC market outside the U.S. and Japan reached 68 percent of global shipments in the third quarter. Asia/Pacific, Latin America, Canada, Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa are nearing 50 percent share and growing by more than 20 percent in 2007. Western Europe with 22 percent of global volume is also growing at a rapid rate.

"The significant influences driving the growth of portable PC volume include: falling prices, the narrowing performance gap as compared with desktops, improving wireless connectivity, and the expanded access through retail channels," said Richard Shim, personal computing research manager.

"The desktop market will aim to maintain share by emphasizing improvements in energy efficiency, shrinking case designs and emerging mainstream opportunities, such as gaming and all in one systems."