Dvorak Dupes ‘Em Agains

Your first clue that there might be a problem with John Dvorak’s column is the first sentence:

Every single person working in the media today who experienced the dot-com bubble in 1999 to 2000 believes that we are going through the exact same process and can expect the exact same results—a bust.

It’s quite a statement to say that the entire, well, veteran, media thinks one way. That would be a first in recorded history, I think, unless Rush Limbaugh’s right about that old "drive-by" liberal media conspiracy machine.

If your spidey-sense didn’t go off after that first sentence, let me give you a hand so you’ll notice it next time.

The last time he stirred them up was with a cranky rant about the iPhone hype. This time the end of the world is the inevitable second dotcom bust. And yet Dvorak is certain it’s going to happen, he can’t pinpoint exactly why:

The current bubble, already called Bubble 2.0 to mock the Web 2.0 moniker, is harder to pin down insofar as a primary destructive theme is concerned.

But he accomplished something else, something his job most likely calls for: he riled up the blogosphere until they were ready to lynch him for saying so. This is where their bread is buttered after all.

My favorite title as well as Dvorak descriptor is from Marshall Kirkpatrick. He says "Cranky Geek and long respected old dude" "isn’t just cranky, he’s cranky and wrong."

That sentiment seems to be the general consensus, but the link-love (hate) may have been worth it. Microsoft’s Don Dodge takes a shot, too:

The real bubble that is bursting here is Dvorak’s influence. John Dvorak was a very influential writer for PC Magazine back in the PC era.He is out of step with the new web innovations, social networking, User Generated Content, widgets, and all the Internet video innovations.

First, I agree that most of the new Web 2.0 social networking startups will fail to gain traction. But that is true of all startups at all points in time…most of them fail. That is the nature of startups.

But perhaps the most convincing is Erin Norlin, at the Defrag Conference blog:

I have yet to see one piece that mentions “bubble 2.0″ in a larger economic context. Scoble’s talking about how John’s got the wrong bubble. Marshall’s slappin’ John down. Lots of folks are piling on. And not one comment has been made about the housing market, sub-prime (and prime) loan problems, 75 dollar oil, a fed that claims to be still leaning toward tightening, private equity bubbles — nothing! Apparently, lesson #1 of “Bubble 2.0″ is that the entire twitter-facebook-youtube-google driven mess lives in complete isolation.

And yet, as she mentions, the economy’s still doing well in spite of it all. But maybe it’s the most convincing argument because it resonates on both a macro level and a gloom and doom level. We love doomsday stories, and have a tendency to stack up the apocalyptic canon just because we feel like it.

Whether or not Dvorak’s full of it – and I think we may find an agreement there, actually – is irrelevant. The cranky and long respected old dude still gets us talking about him, now doesn’t he?

^{iPhone goes on sale at 6:00 p.m. (local time) on Friday, June 29 and will be sold in the US through Apple’s retail and online stores and AT&T retail stores…available in a 4GB model for $499 (US) and an 8GB model for $599 (US), and will work with either a PC or Mac…iPhone monthly service plans are available for individuals and families and are based on a new two-year service agreement with AT&T. Individual plans are priced at $59.99 for 450 minutes, $79.99 for 900 minutes and $99.99 for 1,350 minutes. All plans include unlimited data (email and web), Visual Voicemail, 200 SMS text messages, roll over minutes and unlimited mobile-to-mobile and a one-time activation fee of $36. Family plans are also available.}

In other words, cool’s going to cost you.

Hitwise reports that searches for the term "iphone" have increased by 583% in the past four weeks, making it the 131st most-searched term in the US overall. Add that to similar terms like "apple iphone," "iphone price," "iphone release date," and "iphone review," and you have Apple’s iPhone website traffic spiking by 185 percent.

Most of that traffic is coming from who you expect it come from, young early adopters with lots of spare cash, and not from cranky old-man columnists like John Dvorak who’s been complaining for some time about it until today he just flipped his old gray wig:

Hitler got less coverage when he invaded Poland….Seriously, this whole thing is creepy in some mystical way.

I love grumpy old men. That’s from a rant entitled, "Shut Up About the iPhone, Already," ironic in that he goes on a long time about shutting up abou it. Let me sum up the rest for you, it goes: iPhone, iPhone, iPhone, iPhone, I really hate the stinkin iPhone, everybody shut up about the daggum iPhone. The end.

The quip about Hitler already won him Line of the Year from WatchMojo.com. Hey Mojo, seeing as there’s six months left in the year, let me give it a whirl:

(Clearing throat) When Steve Jobs unveiled Apple’s new iPhone, it was like John Lennon just walked in carrying the Baby Jesus. (Taking bows) Thank you!

It’s amazing I haven’t seen any name calling (besides from me, of course) for Dvorak. I merely speculated iPhone might not live up to the hype and people started calling me the awfullest [sic: Southern in context] things.

Now Dvorak’s a special case. His theory back in March that Apple should pull the iPhone isn’t looking like it’s going to pan out. After all, they do have lines forming days in advance, with beggars even, and just the vehemently denied rumor that iPhone would be delayed dropped a few billion off of Apple’s market cap – in something like two hours.

Nope, think they’d better stick with it. But I do agree the technophilic world is setting itself for disappointment, as nothing seems to live up to the hype – except for the Nintendo Wii, which is awesome.

Most likely, to echo Dvorak, some of these guys are likely to squeeze their new toy so hard they break it. Or they’ll get their noses broken on the way out of the store, getting, to echo Eminem, a good old-fashioned passionate butt-whoopin’, and get their shoes, hat and iPhone tooken.

Opportunists and charities alike are ready to sell on eBay.

Most likely this is they way it’ll go down, mark it, here on June 26, 2007, I made these predictions:

Enough Apple fanboys, geeks, and trend-minded technophile posers will shell out just under a grand for the iPhone, accessories, and calling plans to make the initial launch a success and nobody will be able to find one anywhere for weeks, which is a good move on Apple’s part, not making enough of them so the anticpation builds through the holidays.

A few days into it, there will be a healthy mix of ecstatic textual paroxysms in blogosphere as well as a number of curmudgeons wailing about this, that, or the other design flub, screen problem, and security flaw. Some of them will predict these problems will be the end of Apple as we know it, paving the way for a world controlled by Microsoft and Google and, for the extra-optimistic techno-doomsdayers, Linux.

Some will be disillusioned but too embarrassed to talk about it, just like they were when the Star Wars prequels came out.

LG will sue Apple and Apple will sue Research In Motion for developing a similar apparatus, calling it the ePhone, and all three will come to agreeable terms before it’s all over to share the money, allowing several iPhone-esque phones on the market, some better, some worse, available on any carrier, iPhone too, for cheaper.

But that last part doesn’t happen until after Christmas.  All in all, a successful dream of a launch.