Self-Driving Vehicles to Make Up 75% of Sales by 2035

    December 10, 2013
    Sean Patterson
    Comments are off for this post.

With congress now debating driverless car technology legislation and more automakers beginning to test their own driverless technology, it appears that autonomous vehicles are finally on their way to consumers. Unfortunately, legal barriers will stall the wide adoption of driverless cars for at leas another decade.

Market research firm Navigant Research today predicted that autonomous vehicles will begin to make up a significant portion of the car market by the year 2025. In the decade following, the technology will become pervasive, eventually ending up on 75% of all vehicles sold in the year 2035. This report matches the time frame seen an IEEE report released in 2012 that predicted 75% of all vehicles on the road will be autonomous by the year 2040.

“The introduction of satellite navigation systems has hastened the development of autonomous vehicle features, replacing the need for a massively expensive road infrastructure that was once thought to be a requirement for automated driving,” said David Alexander, senior research analyst at Navigant Research. “Already, automakers are incorporating intelligent onboard systems, such as self-parking, traffic jam assistance, and adaptive cruise control, in new and upcoming models.”

Though regulatory hurdles still pose a threat to the advancing technology, some individual states such as Nevada and California are already allowing limited testing of autonomous vehicles on their roads. Navigant and other market watchers believe the inherent safety of taken control from human drivers will quickly drive adoption of the technology once early hurdles are cleared.

  • JTR

    Yeah … I don’t see it. They made claims like this with electric cars. Still, every neighbor I have is driving a regular old car. The bottom line is the technology is unproven, you would need to have everyone own a smart car to have the system really function as designed, and people don’t have the disposable income to buy a new car. Heck, people are having a hard time feeding themselves.

    I have seen people drive. There is no software on this planet that could account for all the possible things a driver might do. My internet still goes down from time to time… what the hell happens when my smart car has a technology glitch when I am doing 80 mph? I will probably die.

  • OsamaObama

    The only entity capable of universalizing driverless car technology is the United States Federal Government. We can afford “a massively expensive road infrastructure”.

    That infrastructure begins at Manhattan’s Ground Zero, where the World Trade Center (WTC) is becoming the World Transportation Center (WTC).

  • OsamaObama

    Driverless cars will obey all traffic laws.
    Police patrols will be less necessary.
    America’s electorate may decide to abolish police patrols.
    Patrols can be eliminated by limiting police to 911 response.
    9/11 is the phone number for police assistance.

    • @OsamaObama

      Thanks for the laugh.

      Traffic violations are big business for the police. Entire budgets are made from them. In fact, when you study the numbers, you notice quite quickly the number of tickets go up when government is short on cash. Abolish police patrols? In case you haven’t noticed, the police are beefing up in this nation. There are police everywhere. It is a massive hiring spree.

      I think you are joking with you comments. If you aren’t, then you are delusional. Ticketing, fines, incarceration, and prison are big business in the US. Doubt what I say ….. look up the numbers for yourself.

      • OsamaObama

        At Yale, we spell “delusional” delu$ional.

        New Hampshire primary voters are already responding favorably to the question “How would you feel forcing the police to wait in the station until a citizen dials 9/11?”

        Police patrols cannot be abolished until computers rather than humans drive cars.

        As Mandela said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”