Presidential Winner Predicted in State-by-State Analysis

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Presidential Winner Predicted in State-by-State Analysis
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A University of Colorado (CU) analysis of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election predicts that Mitt Romney will win the election in November. The model used for the prediction is one that has correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1980, including George W. Bush losing the popular vote but still winning the election in 2000. [Details Here]

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Michael Berry, political science professor at CU. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

The prediction model uses an analysis of economic factors to determine an outcome for each of the 50 U.S. states. It was developed by Berry and his fellow CU political science professor Kenneth Bickers. Two of the factors the model takes into account include state and national unemployment numbers and changes in real per capita income, both of which affect Democratic and Republican candidates differently.

The study has predicted that President Barack Obama will only receive 218 electoral votes, far short of the 270 needed to win the election. It also predicts that Romney will receive 52.9% of the popular vote.

“The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.” said Bickers.

The Berry and Bickers study will be published in this month’s Political Science & Politics. An update to their analysis using more recent economic data will be coming in September.

Presidential Winner Predicted in State-by-State Analysis
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  • The end is near

    But some tribal leaders in town for the gathering say the president and his staff have failed to follow through on the bold promises he made as a candidate and later as president.

    Robert Porter, the president of the Seneca nation in Western New York, said in an interview with the Caucus that Mr. Obama had failed to purse a legislative agenda that would help empower the American Indian nations and improve the economic situation for residents.

    “The administration is very easily co-opting us with lofty promises of supporting the nation-to-nation relationship but then not following through,” Mr. Porter said. “We need to have support for meaningful tribal economic empowerment.”

    Mr. Porter’s tribe has clashed with the administration over legislation passed last year that banned the direct sales of cigarettes through the mail. The Seneca nation had been an aggressive seller of cigarettes by mail and denounced the legislation as a means of crippling economic activity on American Indian reservations.

    A news release in March from the Seneca nation accused Mr. Obama of “deliberately betraying” American Indians by signing the legislation into law.

  • Joe

    Apparently Sam Wang hasn’t been notified of the correct results over the last 32 years.

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