New Forecast Downplays Importance Of Mobile Ads

    September 30, 2009

Google and Yahoo may not want to count on their interest in the mobile market paying off anytime soon.  A Bernstein analyst has forecast that, even by the time 2013 wraps up, mobile ads still won’t generate much in the way of income for either company.

Jeffrey Lindsay believes that mobile ads won’t supply even one-twentieth of either company’s total revenue at that point.  Peter Kafka reported, "He figures US mobile ads could generate $300 million for Yahoo in 2013 – about 4% of revenues."

And that’s actually the more optimistic of the two cases if you concentrate on percentages and look at things from a certain angle.  Kafka continued, "[H]e thinks Google, who dominates mobile search in the same way it does in the wired world, could generate $600 million – less than 2% of its revenues."

Given all of the energy that Google’s poured into its mobile efforts – think search, Android, the My Location feature, and so on – it’d be interesting to know whether the search giant agrees with Lindsay’s estimates and is just planning for the long-term, or is counting on things turning out better than he expects.

Anyway, if you’re interested in a broader perspective, Lindsay predicted that mobile ads would be worth $2.2 billion all together in 2013.