Google Up, Up and Away
For another straight month, Google has gained in search share. At this point you wonder why one bothers measuring by the month. How about for the 15th (at least) straight quarter Google has gained in search share? How about for the fourth straight year, Google has gained in search share?
I’m not sure about that last statement. I’ve only been covering search for three and a half years. You know how many months during that time Yahoo has beaten Google in search share?
Not a one.
Hitwise’s monthly report pegs Google grabbing 71.16 percent of the search market in September, up from 71.01 percent in August, up 12 percent year-over-year. Yahoo dropped by another 0.20 percent to 18.06 percent, down almost four and half percent from last year. MSN actually gained again by 0.04 percent, a pittance, to 5.36 percent, but down year-over-year by 6.28 percent. Ask, if it possibly matters, is up by 0.18 percent to 3.65 percent, slightly down from last year’s 4.32 percent.
The other 45 search engines Hitwise looked at accounted for 1.8 percent together.
I hate to make predictions, but Yahoo’s done. There are rumored 3,500 layoffs coming in December. YHOO stock is down to below $13 per share, any recent gain coming on breathless hope of another Microsoft bid. That price is about half of what Carl Icahn bought in at, and you can bet investors are very, very angry, especially the more they think about the $31-33 per share they could have squeezed out of Mr. Softy.
My prediction: October 2009 sees Google with 80 percent search share and I think that’s where it will finally peak. Microsoft will buy Yahoo after the board forces out Yang and Bostock, because if they don’t buy Yahoo somebody else likely will (I don’t know, maybe at $18-20 per share?), and because the remaining 15 percent will still be nice to have.