Gartner: Twitter Disillusionment Inevitable

    August 12, 2009

The days of not being able to go ten minutes without hearing the term "Twitter" may soon come to an end.  According to a new report from Gartner, the site is moving towards the trough of the tech hype cycle.

Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow, said in a statement, "Technologies at the Peak of Inflated Expectations during 2009 include cloud computing, e-books (such as from Amazon and Sony) and Internet TV (for example, Hulu), while social software and microblogging sites (such as Twitter) have tipped over the peak and will soon experience disillusionment among enterprise users."

This could be either bad or good news for Twitter.  Disillusionment may lead to abandonment, and we know Twitter’s already experiencing some problems on that front.  If they grow worse, it’ll probably be quite hard to monetize or further popularize the site.

On the other hand, Fenn talked about "[l]ooking at real benefit . . . rather than the hyped expectations," which sounds like hitting a maintainable stride.  And at least, with regards to mainstream adoption, microblogging’s marked by a "2 to 5 years" icon, not the "obsolete before plateau" one.

Meanwhile, Twitter is indeed working again after experiencing some more downtime yesterday.