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Disruptive Technologies for the Next 4 Years

Gartner names ten...

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Gartner, an IT industry analyst firm, has published a report on what its analysts see as the top ten disruptive technologies for 2008 to 2012:

  • Multicore and hybrid processors
  • Virtualisation and fabric computing
  • Social networks and social software
  • Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
  • Web mashups
  • User Interface
  • Ubiquitous computing
  • Contextual computing
  • Augmented reality
  • Semantics

Unless you’re in the IT business, or have an interest in it, some of this won’t mean a lot without some explanation.

Virtualization, for instance. Know what that is? I wasn’t sure, either, but a definition at Wikipedia at least is a good place to find out more.

Among the many interesting aspects about Gartner’s research is this quote from Gartner Fellow David Cearley:

[...] business IT applications will start to mirror the features found in popular consumer social software, such as Facebook and MySpace, as organisations look to improve employee collaboration and harness the community feedback of customers.

“Social software provides a platform that encourages participation and feedback from employees and customers alike,” he said. “The added value for businesses is being able to collect this feedback into a single point that reflects collective attitudes, which can help shape a business strategy.”

I wonder where all of these technologies will appear in Gartner’s hype cycle when they publish their 2008 report on the emerging technologies hype cycle, sometime in July.

As an aid to making predictions (aka guesses), here is the hype cycle for 2007:

gartner-hype-2007

Take mashups – note that this was almost at the peak of inflated expectations a year ago, almost in the same position it was a year before that.

It’s also a technology with less than two years to mainstream adoption, according to Gartner. So if they’re right, it has a year to go.

And take Web 2.0. Although not on Gartner’s top ten list, it’s a topic constantly talked about and well downwards towards the trough of disillusionment in 2007 following its position at the apogee of the peak of inflated expectations in 2006:

gartner-hype-2006

I wonder where Web 2.0 will appear in 2008.

But making predictions concerning technologies is a tricky business so I won’t make any regarding Gartner’s top ten.

Wait until July.

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