Believing Google’s Click Fraud Numbers

    March 1, 2007

Today, Google finally came out with some solid numbers around the click fraud issue.

The number of invalid clicks across the Google network? Less than 10%. The total amount of undetected click fraud that advertisers have reported and asked for a refund for? .02% I was briefed by Google little while ago about their plans around click fraud and so I had some time to digest the numbers and think about them. Google also passed my name along as an expert third-party that the media could contact to get more commentary about the numbers and Google’s product roadmap for dealing with click fraud. If you’re interested in what the numbers actually mean, I would suggest going to Danny Sullivan’s post this morning on Searchengineland. Danny does his usual thorough job of making sense of the announcement.

One question that I got from a couple reporters yesterday was, did I believe Google’s numbers? Although I should have anticipated this question, I was somewhat surprised. So last night I thought about. What would Google gain by fudging the numbers at this point? I think there’s a few points you have to consider when looking for the answer to this question. Based on the fact that I’ve already been asked it three times, by three different reporters. I believe it is a valid question and one that a number of people will probably be asking.

Maybe I’m na