200 Million Facebookers? Wishful Thinking

For the past year, the projected numbers for Facebook have been unbelievable. Literally. Unbelievable. Before, it was the CEO’s inflated opinion of monetary worth (at some point I heard $8 billion kicked around), which understandably made early MySpace investor heads explode.

$580 million! News Corp knows how to make a deal and when, even as MySpace membership trails off a bit – well, levels, might be a better word, as the meteoric rise comes to its peak and the dream dust settles at a hundred million or so members, much fewer that are active.

Facebook still has a fraction of that, but is growing fast, especially since opening up to third-party applications. Is it an $8 billion property yet? Well, no. I still think Zuckerberg should have taken the $2 billion offered and run with it before everybody got over it or graduated – whichever came first – and went to another network, which seems to be happening, at least a little, to MySpace.

The most recent prediction says Facebook, with 38 million members, will hit 220 million members in a year if it continues to grow at its current rate. And there’s a distinct possibility Jessica Alba might change her mind about nudity clauses.

Not saying it won’t happen and good for Facebook if it does, and good for every red-blooded male if Jessica decides we deserve it yet. But I have a hunch Facebook will peak and level out, perhaps near or even above MySpace – but the current growth rate would be a difficult one to maintain.